According to a new Politico article released today, many of the donors in the Bush camp seem ready to move elsewhere. This does not come as no surprise as Governor Bush has struggled with getting momentum for his campaign. The article seems to suggest that donors are waiting around for New Hampshire to jump ship to the Rubio camp (which is the go to establishment candidate right now). Some of the donors in the Bush camp are in a wait and see mode, which seems to be the best tactic at the moment.
I think it is still premature to be looking for a way out just yet. Governor Bush does have an up hill battle but he still has several factors working in his favor:
- Iowa is still three weeks away which is plenty of time to make some ground up on the rest of the pack. Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee will be the first to tell you anything can happen in Iowa. Both Santorum and Huckabee won Iowa (Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008) neither was a heavy favorite and their momentum only came on in the closing weeks leading up to Iowa.
- There is still one more debate before the Iowa Caucus. Governor Bush did pretty well in last night’s debate and with a stand out performance in the last debate it could be the kick his campaign needs.
- South Carolina quickly approaches and that could be a more favorable environment to Governor Bush and his message. Governor Bush needs to perform strong in either Iowa or New Hampshire to carry onward. Even if Governor Bush cannot win, either a strong second place or maybe even a third place finish could be good enough to keep him in the race.
- Governor Bush needs to keep in mind that this is a crowded field and he is in the middle of the pack. Governor Bush is, afterall, a Bush with strong donor base. Governor Bush can afford to play the waiting game more so than some of the other candidates. As others being to suspend their campaigns, Governor Bush needs to court those supporters to his camp.
Without the first vote even being cast in Iowa, Governor Bush should not be in panic mode just yet.
Here is a link to the Politico article: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/jeb-bush-donors-loyalty-217802